Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, cilt.40, sa.3, ss.1-22, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
This study presents a novel methodology for estimating the peak
discharge resulting from the failure of earth-fill dams through the development
of simplified empirical equations. The proposed method integrates parametric
sensitivity analysis, numerical simulations, and meta-heuristic optimization
techniques. The historical failure of the Teton Dam in Idaho, USA, was selected
as a reference study area due to the availability of reliable spatial and
hydraulic data, and the developed models are therefore mainly applicable to
piping-type failures in earth-fill dams. Five critical parameters were
initially considered in the dam breach analysis: bottom breach width (BBW),
breach side slope (SS), breach development time (BDT), volume of
water above breach invert (Vw), and water height at piping
initiation (Hw). A total of 2000 dam failure scenarios were
simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's – River Analysis System
(HEC-RAS), and the results were analyzed to derive empirical models. Correlation analysis revealed that while BBW and BDT
have strong correlation with Peak Breach Flow (Qp) and clear directional influence, SS had a
minor direct effect. In contrast, Hw and Vw
exhibited complex and nonlinear behavior due to their interdependence with BDT.
Although they physically affect Qp, their influence is
non-monotonic and scenario-dependent. For empirical equation development
approach, their contribution was found to be minimal compared to BBW and
BDT. As a result, simplified empirical equations were developed using
the most influential parameters. Multiple empirical equation structures were
investigated: (i) single-parameter models, (ii) two- and three-parameter
models, and (iii) a novel table-driven model where the coefficients adapt
dynamically based on discrete values of the third parameter. Among these, the
table-driven empirical equations performed the best, with a maximum absolute
percent error ranging from 20.3% to 25.1%, significantly improving the accuracy
compared to fixed-coefficient models. Coefficients of the empirical models were
optimized using the Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) algorithm,
which proved effective in calibrating the nonlinear relationships between
breach parameters and peak flow. The proposed empirical equation family, named
Simplified Empirical Equation for Dam failure (SEED), provides a rapid and
flexible estimation framework that can support early warning systems, dam
breach risk assessment, and emergency action planning. The study demonstrates
that well-designed empirical equations, when supported by robust simulation and
optimization techniques, can offer reliable approximations for complex dam
breach hydraulics, especially in data-scarce or time-critical scenarios.