Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Mediterranean Geosciences Union Annual Meeting (MedGU-21), İstanbul, Türkiye, 25 - 28 Kasım 2021, ss.208-216, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is used to develop a framework to overcome deep uncertainties without the need for forecasting and identifying what these uncertainties may be. Long-term decision-makers can be informed about possible solutions to various future scenarios with DAPP. The framework is established by first identifying the factors that cause uncertainty such as sea level rise, increase in rainfall intensity and rainfall durations. Next, the ‘tipping points’ of the system are determined by simulating the system with various future scenarios using the identified factors. Viable solutions that protect the system from the future scenarios are studied and the system is simulated using logical combinations of the viable solutions. The simulation results give a framework for identifying which solution can be implemented and will protect against which one of the established future scenarios.
In this study, DAPP is developed for a coastal catchment in Bahrain which is characterized with an arid climate. First, the site’s proposed main storm water collection components are simulated using a hydraulic modelling software (PCSWMM). Next, the factors that cause uncertainty in the study site are identified to be tide-level, sea-level rise, rain duration and rain intensity. Considering these factors, 16 scenarios will be used to determine the proposed system’s tipping points. The 16 scenarios are combinations of 4 return periods of tide-level and rainfall (the 5-, 50-, 100- and 200-year) for the current scenario, i.e. without forecast, and with 3 climate change forecasts of rainfall duration, intensity and sea-level rise.
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is used to develop a framework to overcome deep uncertainties without the need for forecasting and identifying what these uncertainties may be. Long-term decision-makers can be informed about possible solutions to various future scenarios with DAPP. The framework is established by first identifying the factors that cause uncertainty such as sea level rise, increase in rainfall intensity and rainfall durations. Next, the ‘tipping points’ of the system are determined by simulating the system with various future scenarios using the identified factors. Viable solutions that protect the system from the future scenarios are studied and the system is simulated using logical combinations of the viable solutions. The simulation results give a framework for identifying which solution can be implemented and will protect against which one of the established future scenarios.
In this study, DAPP is developed for a coastal catchment in Bahrain which is characterized with an arid climate. First, the site’s proposed main storm water collection components are simulated using a hydraulic modelling software (PCSWMM). Next, the factors that cause uncertainty in the study site are identified to be tide-level, sea-level rise, rain duration and rain intensity. Considering these factors, 16 scenarios will be used to determine the proposed system’s tipping points. The 16 scenarios are combinations of 4 return periods of tide-level and rainfall (the 5-, 50-, 100- and 200-year) for the current scenario, i.e. without forecast, and with 3 climate change forecasts of rainfall duration, intensity and sea-level rise.