A multi-scenario modeling framework for evaluating the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on watershed hydrology and sediment transport

Peker İ. B., Cüceloğlu G., Gülbaz S., Copty N. K.

LANDSCAPE AND ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING, cilt.1, sa.1, ss.1-17, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 1 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s11355-026-00746-0
  • Dergi Adı: LANDSCAPE AND ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biological Science Database (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Periodicals Index Online, BIOSIS, Environment Index, Zoological Record
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-17
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi-Cerrahpaşa Adresli: Evet

Özet

Urbanizing watersheds face compounding pressures from simultaneous land cover and climate change, with potentially

compounded implications on streamflow dynamics and sediment transport. This study presents an integrated modeling

framework to evaluate streamflow and sediment responses to land cover and climate change projections. Land cover

dynamics were simulated using the Multilayer Perceptron–Markov Chain (MLP–MC) and integrated into the Soil and

Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess hydrological and sediment responses. Climate projections were derived

from an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two different representative concentration pathways

(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-scenario assessment was conducted to quantify the individual and combined impacts of

climate and land cover change on the hydrology and sediment transport within the Alibeyköy Watershed, a critical drinking

water resource for Istanbul, Türkiye. Under the business-as-usual no intervention scenario, land cover projections

indicate rapid urban expansion exceeding 400% between 1990 and 2090, and significant declines in pasture, barren, and

forest classes. Results reveal that the combined effect of impervious surface expansion and projected shifts in precipitation

patterns will lead to reduction in streamflow, exceeding 50% in some scenarios, and a concurrent increase in sediment

loads. These results highlight the critical sensitivity of urban watershed hydrology to the interaction between land cover

transformation and climate forcing and emphasize the need for scenario-based, integrated watershed modeling to inform

adaptive water resource management strategies capable of addressing the compounding risks of urbanization and climate

change.