Comparative performance of ACEF and GRACE risk scores in predicting early and long term mortality in patients with non ST elevation myocardial infarction

Uluslararası Katılımlı 32. Türk Kardiyoloji Kongresi, Antalya, Türkiye, 20 - 23 Ekim 2016, ss.23, (Özet Bildiri)

Background and Aim: Acute coronary syndrome is the most common cause of cardiac morbidity and death.

Various scoring systems have been developed in order to identify patients who are at risk of adverse outcome.

This study is designed to evaluate ACEF (age, creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction) risk

score (RS) as a predictor of early and long term mortality in patients with non ST elevation myocardial

infarction (NSTEMI) and to compare predictive accuracy of ACEF RS with Global Registry of Acute Coronary

Events (GRACE) RS.

Methods: From January 2011 to January 2015, 954 NSTEMI patients who underwent coronary angiography

and/or percutaneous coronary intervention were analyzed. The primary endpoints were defined as 30-day

and long term mortality during 12-month follow-up.

Results: Multivariate regression analysis revealed that the ACEF RS was an independent predictor of both

30-day and long term mortality in patients with NSTEMI.The areas under the curve (AUC) of ACEF RS and

GRACE RS were 0.79 and 0.75 for 30-day mortality (p<0.001, <0.001, respectively); 0.80 and 0.73 for long

term mortality (p<0.001, <0.001 respectively). The predictive value of the adjusted areas under the receiver

operating characteristic curves of both ACEF RS and GRACE RS were similar for 30-day and long term mortality

when we performed a pairwise comparison (By de-Long method, AUCACEF vs AUCGRACE z test=0.52,

p=0.60, AUCACEF vs AUCGRACE z test=1.68, p=0.09, respectively).

Conclusions: ACEF RS may be a useful tool to predict 30-day and long-term mortality in patients with NSTEMI

like GRACE RS.