Ballistic Missile Threat Assessment and the Decision-Making Mechanism


Kirişci M.

12. Savunma Teknolojileri Kongresi - SAVTEK, Ankara, Türkiye, 9 - 11 Eylül 2026, cilt.1, sa.1, ss.1-9, (Tam Metin Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası: 1
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Ankara
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-9
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi-Cerrahpaşa Adresli: Evet

Özet

Ballistic missile threat assessment is of paramount importance for missile defense operations and forms a crucial basis for early warning, detection, interception, and other combat missions. Given this issue, this article proposes a ballistic missile threat assessment method based on an integrated decision-making algorithm. The algorithm essentially incorporates two aspects: First, the expert decision-making method has been replaced with a combination of subjective and objective weights that consider both expert experience and objective information. Second, the ELECTRE model has been enhanced to handle Fermatean fuzzy problems. The improved model can perform threat assessments of incoming ballistic missiles even when data is incomplete or ambiguous.