Consecutive disaster risk management of forest wildfires followed by flooding
SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, cilt.12, sa.5, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 12 Sayı: 5
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s40899-026-01405-w
- Dergi Adı: SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Compendex, Geobase, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest)
- İstanbul Üniversitesi-Cerrahpaşa Adresli: Evet
Özet
Consecutive and interacting disasters increasingly challenge traditional disaster risk management (DRM) approaches that typically address hazards in isolation. This study investigates the 2021 wildfire-flood sequence in Mugla Province, southwestern Turkey, and evaluates how consecutive hazard interactions reshaped regional risk dynamics. As the methodology, we adopt an enhanced ex-post multi-hazard assessment framework to conceptualize and analyze mechanisms between wildfire impacts, environmental degradation, hydrological responses, and disaster risk amplification. The methodological framework combines satellite-based burned area mapping, meteorological observations, official disaster records, and reconstructed hazard indicators. It integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses with an approach using a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The CLD enables the identification of reinforcing and balancing loops that are often overlooked in traditional DRM assessments. Wildfire hazard conditions were assessed using the Fire Weather Index (FWI), while flood hazard was evaluated through rainfall data acquired from meteorological station records. Extreme fire weather conditions were observed, including an FWI value of 78.9 on 1 August 2021 and maximum temperatures reaching 45.5 degrees C. In the months following the fires, intense rainfall events occurred, including 155.1 mm of precipitation recorded on 4 December 2021, triggering flash floods in previously burned regions. The analysis demonstrates that wildfire-induced vegetation loss and soil degradation significantly increased surface runoff and flood susceptibility. By integrating CLD with empirical hazard data, the study highlights the importance of multi-hazard DRM approaches capable of capturing consecutive disaster dynamics and informing more resilient risk management strategies.